被动元件：不再是事后考虑
Future Electronics被动元件部门企业副总裁Jacques Hing表示，电容和电阻等被动元件不能再通过传统的准时制采购模式管理。
原文深度解读
本文由Future Electronics被动元件部门企业副总裁Jacques Hing撰写，发布于2026年，主题为被动元件（电容、电阻等）供应链的深刻变革。文章指出，全球被动元件市场价值超450亿美元，其中电容市场约280亿美元、电阻市场约100亿美元，受AI、电动车、可再生能源等驱动，需求激增，产能利用率超95%。原材料（尤其银）涨价导致MLCC、钽电容等价格涨幅达15%-70%，交期延长至26-52周。亚太主导生产，但北美增长最快，供应链区域化趋势明显。文章建议通过授权分销商、安全库存、多源认证等策略应对风险。
- 全球被动元件市场价值超过450亿美元，电容市场约280亿美元，年增长6%-8%，2026年预计中高双位数增长；电阻市场约100亿美元。
- AI服务器平台和现代电动车架构对被动元件需求显著增加，多数被动元件制造商产能利用率超过95%。
- 银、铜、钽、金等原材料价格压力显著，其中银价上涨对电容、电阻、电感成本影响最大。
- 价格涨幅：高容MLCC涨15%-50%，标准MLCC涨15%-50%，钽和聚合物电容涨15%-70%，厚膜片式电阻涨15%-35%，功率电感涨15%-50%。
- 高容MLCC、钽电容、聚合物电容及部分铝电解电容交期延长至26-52周，部分高密度元件更长。
- 亚太主导生产，但北美是增长最快的电容市场，区域化供应链趋势带来短期成本增加和运营复杂性。
供应链影响
- 被动元件供应紧张可能持续，取决于AI、EV等下游需求增长及产能扩张速度。
- 高容MLCC、钽电容等专用元件交期延长可能影响OEM生产计划，取决于库存管理和供应商优先级。
- 制造商向高利润领域倾斜可能导致传统低利润元件供应减少，OEM可能面临短缺风险。
- 区域化供应链可能增加短期成本，但长期可能提升韧性，取决于地缘政治和贸易政策演变。
- 原材料价格波动可能继续推高被动元件价格，取决于银等金属市场走势。
系统解读，仅作为判断线索，不构成备货、出货、涨价或投资建议。
Future Electronics被动元件部门企业副总裁Jacques Hing解释了为什么被动元件不能再通过传统的准时制采购模式管理
几十年来，电容和电阻被视为低成本商品，虽然必不可少，但很少具有战略意义。到2026年，这种心态已成为巨大的负担。全球被动元件市场价值超过450亿美元，正在经历由人工智能、电动汽车、可再生能源和供应链重构驱动的根本性变革。
虽然存储芯片和有源半导体继续占据头条，但被动元件正日益成为全球供应链生态系统中的关键瓶颈。一个低成本电容或电阻的短缺，与高端处理器短缺一样，都能有效导致生产停滞。
市场重心已从传统消费电子转向高功率、高可靠性应用。AI数据中心、电动汽车、高级驾驶辅助系统（ADAS）、5G基础设施和可再生能源项目正在推动对专用被动元件的空前需求。
仅电容市场估计价值约280亿美元，年增长率约6%至8%，但2026年预计将出现中高双位数增长。多层陶瓷电容（MLCC）主导该领域，而电阻市场估计约100亿美元，也在稳步扩张，增长由小型化电子和高功率工业应用推动。
AI服务器平台和现代电动汽车架构所需的被动元件数量远超上一代技术，对供应链造成巨大压力，大多数被动元件制造商的产能利用率远高于95%。
原材料通胀已成为被动元件制造商的主要挑战。铜、银、钽、金和其他广泛用于被动元件生产的特种材料都经历了显著的价格压力。
最显著的影响来自银，银是某些类型电容、电阻和电感的关键材料。银价大幅上涨压缩了本已微薄的利润，迫使制造商通过有针对性的涨价将成本转嫁给客户。
因此：
- 高容MLCC上涨15%至50%
- 标准MLCC上涨15%至50%
- 钽和聚合物电容上涨15%至70%
- 厚膜片式电阻上涨15%至35%
- 功率电感和磁性元件上涨15%至50%
被动元件价格稳定的时代显然已经结束，上述涨幅肯定只是新趋势的开始。
亚太地区继续主导制造，占全球电容和电阻产量的大部分。然而，政府和制造商正越来越多地追求区域化供应链以降低地缘政治风险。
北美目前是增长最快的电容市场，得益于对电动汽车基础设施、半导体制造和超大规模数据中心的投资。与此同时，近岸外包举措和贸易紧张局势正鼓励企业分散生产，减少对单一地区的依赖。
尽管这些举措有望带来长期韧性，但也正在造成短期至中期的成本增加和运营复杂性。
与疫情期间的广泛短缺不同，当今市场高度复杂且细分。标准商品元件目前仍相对可获取，但更专业的产品越来越难以采购。
高容MLCC、钽电容、聚合物电容和一些铝电解电容的交期正在延长，通常为26至52周，某些更高密度元件甚至更长。
许多被动元件制造商越来越优先考虑高利润领域，包括AI基础设施、汽车电子和工业电源系统。随着产能向这些应用转移，传统和低利润元件产品线受到的关注减少，使许多OEM可能面临各种被动元件的严重短缺风险。
有远见的组织正在紧急采用和实施几项关键策略：
- 与Future Electronics等全球授权库存分销商紧密合作，优化物料清单，与合适的供应商战略对齐，并最小化迫在眉睫的供应风险
- 定期获取被动元件市场更新，了解交期和价格趋势
- 主动为最关键、长交期的元件建立安全库存缓冲，并提供更长期的需求可见性（最长24个月）
- 在产品设计期间认证多家制造商，以最大化供应选择
- 与指定的高库存被动元件分销商（如Future Electronics）谈判长期供应协议，并利用其当前可售库存和与主要制造商的大量订单管道
www.futureelectronics.com
Future Electronic’s corporate VP, passives, Jacques Hing, explains why passive components can no longer be managed through traditional just-in-time procurement models
For decades, capacitors and resistors were treated as low-cost commodities, essential but rarely strategic. In 2026, that mindset has become a huge liability. The global passive components market, valued at more than $45 billion, is undergoing a fundamental transformation driven by artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, renewable energy and supply chain realignment.
While memory chips and active semiconductors continue to dominate headlines, passive components are increasingly becoming critical bottlenecks in the global supply chain ecosystem. A shortage of a low-cost capacitor or resistor can halt production just as effectively as a shortage of a high-end processor.
The market’s center of gravity has moved away from traditional consumer electronics toward high-power, high-reliability applications. AI data centers, EVs, advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS), 5G infrastructure and renewable energy projects are driving unprecedented demand for specialized passive components.
The capacitor market alone is estimated to be worth approximately $28 billion and is growing at approximately 6 to 8 per cent annually but with mid to high double-digit growth expected in 2026. Multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) dominate the sector, while the resistor market, estimated at around $10 billion, is also expanding steadily, with growth fueled by miniaturized electronics and high-power industrial applications.
AI server platforms and modern EV architectures require significantly more passive components than previous generations of technology, creating intense pressure on supply chains with most passives manufacturers operating at well above 95 per cent capacity utilization rate.
Raw-material inflation has become a major challenge for passive component manufacturers. Copper, silver, tantalum, gold and other specialty materials used extensively in the production of passive components have all experienced significant price pressure.
The most notable impact has come from silver, a critical material used in some types of capacitors, resistors and inductors. Sharp increases in silver prices have compressed already thin margins, forcing manufacturers to pass costs to customers through targeted price increases.
As a result:
- High-capacitance MLCCs have risen 15 to 50 per cent
- Standard MLCCs have increased 15 to 50 per cent
- Tantalum and polymer capacitors have climbed 15 to 70 per cent
- Thick-film chip resistors have risen 15 to 35 per cent
- Power inductors and magnetic components have increased 15 to 50 per cent
The era of stable passive-component pricing is clearly over and the above increases are surely just the beginning of a new trend.
Asia-Pacific continues to dominate manufacturing, accounting for the majority of global capacitor and resistor production. However, governments and manufacturers are increasingly pursuing regionalized supply chains to reduce geopolitical risk.
North America is currently the fastest-growing capacitor market, supported by investments in EV infrastructure, semiconductor manufacturing and hyperscale data centers. At the same time, nearshoring initiatives and trade tensions are encouraging companies to diversify production away from single-region dependencies.
Although these moves promise greater long-term resilience, they are also creating short to medium term cost increases and operational complexity.
Unlike the broad shortages seen during the pandemic, today’s market is highly complex and segmented. Standard commodity components remain relatively available for now, but more specialized products have increasingly become much harder to source.
High-capacitance MLCCs, tantalum capacitors, polymer capacitors and some aluminum electrolytics are experiencing extended lead times, often ranging from 26 to 52 weeks, and even longer for certain higher density components.
Many passives manufacturers are increasingly prioritizing higher-margin sectors including AI infrastructure, automotive electronics and industrial power systems. As production capacity shifts toward these applications, legacy and lower-profit component lines are receiving less attention, leaving many OEMs potentially vulnerable to severe shortages across a whole spectrum of passive components.
Forward-looking organizations are urgently adopting and implementing several key strategies:
- Working closely with globally franchised stocking distributors like Future Electronics to optimize bill-of-materials, align strategically with the right suppliers and minimize imminent supply risks
- Getting regular passive market updates on lead time and pricing trends
- Building proactively safety-stock buffers for the most critical, long lead time components and providing longer term visibility (up to 24 months) to demand requirements
- Qualifying multiple manufacturers during product design to maximize supply options
- Negotiating long-term supply agreements with a designated high-stocking passive distributor like Future Electronics and leveraging its current available-to-sell inventory and large pipeline of orders with major manufacturers
www.futureelectronics.com