波兰寻求抓住欧洲半导体产业机遇
波兰国家开发银行BGK发布报告，指出波兰半导体市场规模有望从2025年的51亿美元增长至2035年的237亿美元，并识别出相关机遇。该报告涉及欧洲半导体产业格局与波兰在其中的定位，与元器件供应链的区域布局相关。
原文深度解读
本文报道波兰国家开发银行（BGK）于9月底发布题为《关键技术：半导体作为波兰的战略资产》的报告，分析波兰半导体市场现状与发展前景。报告指出全球半导体市场规模接近8000亿美元，波兰目前并非全球领先生产国，但预计其国内市场将从2025年的51亿美元增长至2035年的237亿美元，2026—2035年复合年增长率为16.7%。报告建议波兰不复制全球最大制造商的发展模式，而是聚焦集成电路设计、氮化镓（GaN）功率电子应用、光子学以及半导体封装测试等环节，并提及电动出行等下游需求增长。文章还提到Evertiq Expo华沙活动及TOP 10排名。该内容与电子元器件供应链的区域布局、价值链分工及下游需求变化相关。
- BGK报告指出全球半导体市场价值接近8000亿美元，波兰目前不在全球领先半导体生产国之列，仍处于较早发展阶段，但预测显示其国内市场有快速增长潜力。
- 报告预计波兰半导体市场2025年将达到51亿美元，到2035年可能升至237亿美元，对应2026—2035年复合年增长率16.7%。
- 报告认为不断增长的芯片需求并不意味着波兰应复制全球最大制造商的发展模式，因为建设能够生产最先进芯片的晶圆厂需要巨额财务投资、专业基础设施和多年技术经验。
- 报告将集成电路设计列为潜在增长领域，理由是波兰是欧盟最大电子制造国之一，且拥有该领域的研发中心，在格但斯克、华沙、克拉科夫和弗罗茨瓦夫等城市有专业团队和技术中心。
- 报告认为氮化镓（GaN）技术应仅在应用和系统背景下在波兰发展，因为GaN材料生产因高成本、市场规模不足和激烈国际竞争而超出波兰经济规模，而功率电子、功率转换和电源系统等应用层具有显著发展潜力。
- 报告还指出光子学以及半导体组装、测试和封装是有前景的领域，发展这些能力可使波兰参与价值链更多环节，而无需在先进处理器生产上直接与台湾或韩国竞争，但成功取决于从实验室研究走向商业应用。
供应链影响
- 如果BGK预测的波兰半导体市场增长得以实现，波兰在欧洲电子元器件供应链中的角色可能从以电子制造为主，逐步向集成电路设计、功率电子应用、光子学及封装测试等环节延伸。
- 报告强调不直接竞争最先进芯片制造，可能意味着波兰在供应链中的定位更偏向设计、应用开发和专业化组件，而非先进制程晶圆制造，这取决于资本、人才和商业转化能力。
- GaN应用层而非材料生产的侧重，可能影响波兰在功率电子、电源、逆变器及高压能源系统相关元器件供应链中的参与程度，但实际影响取决于市场需求和项目落地情况。
- 波兰电动汽车和充电基础设施的预期扩张，可能带动对功率电子、控制系统及相关电子元器件的本地需求，从而影响区域供应链的配套布局。
- 报告提及风险资本和创新企业支持工具，可能有助于波兰半导体相关初创和设计企业成长，但其对供应链的实际影响取决于资本到位、商业化进展和国际竞争态势。
系统解读，仅作为判断线索，不构成备货、出货、涨价或投资建议。
9月底，Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego（BGK）发布了一份题为《关键技术：半导体作为波兰的战略资产》的报告。该报告审视了波兰半导体市场的状况并概述了其发展前景。让我们进一步了解。
让我们从主要结论开始：波兰有机会显著提升其国内半导体市场的价值，并加强其在全球半导体版图上的地位。
首先，显而易见的一点：半导体对经济和技术安全至关重要。它们在电子产品、电动汽车、电信设备、能源系统以及支持人工智能的基础设施生产中不可或缺。能否获得这些元器件也影响国防工业的发展能力。
根据BGK的报告《关键技术：半导体作为波兰的战略资产》，全球半导体市场价值接近8000亿美元。波兰目前不在全球领先半导体生产国之列，仍处于更早的发展阶段。尽管如此，预测仍指向国内市场快速增长的潜力。
2025年，波兰半导体市场预计将达到51亿美元。根据BGK引用的预测，其价值到2035年可能升至237亿美元。这将意味着2026—2035年期间复合年增长率为16.7%。
报告得出一个重要结论：芯片需求增长并不意味着波兰应复制全球最大制造商的发展模式。建设能够生产最先进芯片的晶圆厂需要巨额财务投资、获得专业基础设施以及多年技术经验。
因此，报告作者指出波兰可以在其他领域发展自身能力并加强其在欧洲供应链中的地位。
一个潜在增长领域是集成电路设计。该细分领域在很大程度上依赖工程专业知识、研发能力和知识产权。
“波兰是欧盟最大的电子制造国之一，但并不具备半导体本身的大规模生产。此外，得益于该领域研发中心的存在，集成电路设计是波兰半导体市场的优势，”BGK报告指出。
波兰在格但斯克、华沙、克拉科夫和弗罗茨瓦夫等城市拥有专业团队和技术中心。据BGK称，这些能力构成了国内半导体行业可以建立的基础之一。
另一个领域是功率电子，包括基于氮化镓（GaN）的技术。这种材料能够开发用于高能效电源、能量转换系统、电信基础设施和数据中心的元器件。基于GaN的解决方案也可能在电动出行和能源转型中发挥作用。
“(……)氮化镓技术应仅在应用和系统的背景下在波兰发展。其重要性源于其高能效以及在功率电子和电源系统中的潜在用途，而对GaN材料生产的投资与当前市场规模不匹配。由于高成本、市场规模不足和激烈的国际竞争，GaN材料生产超出波兰经济的规模。相比之下，GaN技术的应用层——包括功率电子、功率转换和电源系统——提供了显著的发展潜力。因此，支持应聚焦于涉及使用这种半导体的项目，例如电源、逆变器和高压能源系统，而不是生产材料本身，”BGK报告的作者解释道。
报告还指出光子学以及半导体组装、测试和封装是有前景的领域。发展这些能力将使波兰能够参与价值链的更多环节，而无需在最先进处理器的生产上直接与台湾或韩国竞争。然而，这一战略的成功将取决于从实验室研究走向商业应用。
BGK还强调了支持创新企业的工具和风险资本市场发展的重要性。报告中提到的一项倡议是Innovate Poland，旨在动员资本投资创新公司。
该行业的增长前景也与其他市场的发展相关。电动出行、可再生能源、人工智能和电信的扩张正在增加对控制能量流动的电子系统和元器件的需求。
BGK估计，到2030年波兰电动汽车数量可能超过70万辆，同时该国可能拥有10万个公共充电点。扩展这一基础设施将需要功率电子和控制系统等。
“2025年10月，波兰约有11.8万辆电动汽车。预测表明，到2030年其数量将增加超过58万辆，超过70万辆注册电动汽车。这意味着五年内潜在增长593.2%，”BGK报告指出。
对波兰公司而言，这创造了开发满足工业、能源行业和运输需求产品的机会。然而，要利用这一潜力，企业不仅需要合格员工，还需要获得资本和生产基础设施。
因此，BGK的报告主张一种基于专业化而非与全球最大制造商直接竞争的发展模式。波兰可以通过将设计和研究能力与专业组件生产及专有技术开发相结合，来增加其在欧洲市场的份额。
电子行业的未来、其供应链以及元器件制造商的作用，将是10月22日在PGE Narodowy体育场举行的Evertiq Expo华沙活动上讨论的话题之一。
活动将以Evertiq内容经理Ewelina Bednarz发布TOP 10排名结束。该排名将涵盖半导体行业20家最大公司，并根据其增长率进行评估。
该排名将通过个别公司的表现和全球市场正在发生的变化提供行业视角。在BGK预测和半导体对欧洲工业日益重要的背景下，它也将提供一个审视在这一战略领域扩展业务的公司机会。
从制造和设计到供应链和新兴技术，电子行业从未停滞。在即将举行的Evertiq Expo活动上结识推动其前进的人们。下一站是10月22日的Evertiq Expo华沙，行业专业人士聚集于此交流知识、发现新解决方案并建立有价值的业务联系。
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At the end of September, Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego published a report entitled “Key Technologies: Semiconductors as a Strategic Asset for Poland”. The report examines the state of Poland’s semiconductor market and outlines its development prospects. Let’s take a closer look.
Let us start with the main conclusion: Poland has an opportunity to significantly increase the value of its domestic semiconductor market and strengthen its position on the global semiconductor map.
First, the obvious point: semiconductors are essential to economic and technological security. They are indispensable in the production of electronics, electric vehicles, telecommunications equipment, energy systems, and infrastructure supporting artificial intelligence. Access to these components also affects the development capabilities of the defence industry.
According to BGK’s report, "Key Technologies: Semiconductors as a Strategic Asset for Poland", the global semiconductor market is worth nearly USD 800 billion. Poland is not currently among the world’s leading semiconductor producers and remains at a much earlier stage of development. Forecasts nevertheless point to the potential for rapid growth in the domestic market.
In 2025, Poland’s semiconductor market was expected to reach USD 5.1 billion. According to a forecast cited by BGK, its value could rise to USD 23.7 billion by 2035. This would represent a compound annual growth rate of 16.7% over the 2026–2035 period.
The report draws an important conclusion: growing demand for chips does not mean that Poland should replicate the development model of the world’s largest manufacturers. Building fabrication plants capable of producing the most advanced chips requires enormous financial investment, access to specialised infrastructure, and years of technological experience.
The report’s authors therefore point to other areas in which Poland can develop its own capabilities and strengthen its position in the European supply chain.
One potential growth area is integrated circuit design. This segment relies heavily on engineering expertise, research and development capabilities, and intellectual property.
“Poland is one of the largest electronics manufacturers in the EU, but it does not have mass production of semiconductors themselves. In addition, integrated circuit design is a strength of the Polish semiconductor market, thanks to the presence of R&D centres in this field,” the BGK report states.
Poland has teams of specialists and technology centres operating in cities including Gdańsk, Warsaw, Kraków, and Wrocław. According to BGK, these capabilities provide one of the foundations on which the domestic semiconductor sector can be built.
Another area is power electronics, including technologies based on gallium nitride (GaN). This material enables the development of components used in energy-efficient power supplies, energy conversion systems, telecommunications infrastructure, and data centres. GaN-based solutions may also play a role in electromobility and the energy transition.
"(…)Gallium nitride technology should be developed in Poland exclusively in the context of applications and systems. Its importance stems from its high energy efficiency and potential uses in power electronics and power supply systems, while investment in GaN material production does not match the current scale of the market. GaN material production is beyond the scale of the Polish economy due to high costs, insufficient market size, and strong international competition. By contrast, the application layer of GaN technology — including power electronics, power conversion, and power supply systems — offers significant development potential. For this reason, support should focus on projects involving the use of this semiconductor, such as power supplies, inverters, and high-voltage energy systems, rather than on producing the material itself,” the BGK report’s authors explain.
The report also identifies photonics and semiconductor assembly, testing, and packaging as promising areas. Developing these capabilities would allow Poland to participate in additional stages of the value chain without competing directly with Taiwan or South Korea in the production of the most advanced processors. The success of this strategy, however, will depend on moving beyond laboratory research towards commercial applications.
BGK also highlights the importance of instruments supporting innovative businesses and the development of the venture capital market. One initiative mentioned in the report is Innovate Poland, which aims to mobilise capital for investment in innovative companies.
The sector’s growth prospects are also linked to developments in other markets. The expansion of electromobility, renewable energy, artificial intelligence, and telecommunications is increasing demand for electronic systems and components that control the flow of energy.
BGK estimates that the number of electric vehicles in Poland could exceed 700,000 by 2030, while the country could have 100,000 public charging points. Expanding this infrastructure will require, among other things, power electronics and control systems.
“In October 2025, there were approximately 118,000 electric vehicles in Poland. Forecasts indicate that their number will increase by more than 580,000 by 2030, exceeding 700,000 registered electric vehicles. This represents a potential increase of 593.2% over five years,” the BGK report states.
For Polish companies, this creates opportunities to develop products that meet the needs of industry, the energy sector, and transport. To capitalise on this potential, however, businesses will need not only qualified employees but also access to capital and production infrastructure.
BGK’s report therefore advocates a development model based on specialisation rather than direct competition with the world’s largest manufacturers. Poland can increase its share of the European market by combining design and research capabilities with the production of specialised components and the development of proprietary technologies.
The future of the electronics industry, its supply chains, and the role of component manufacturers will be among the topics discussed at Evertiq Expo in Warsaw, taking place on 22 October at PGE Narodowy Stadium.
The event will conclude with the presentation of the TOP 10 ranking by Ewelina Bednarz, Content Manager at Evertiq. The ranking will feature the 20 largest companies in the semiconductor sector, assessed according to their growth rates.
The ranking will offer a perspective on the industry through the performance of individual companies and the changes taking place across the global market. Against the backdrop of BGK’s forecasts and the growing importance of semiconductors to European industry, it will also provide an opportunity to examine the companies expanding their operations in this strategic sector.
From manufacturing and design to supply chains and emerging technologies, the electronics industry never stands still. Meet the people driving it forward at the upcoming Evertiq Expo events. The next stop is Evertiq Expo Warsaw on October 22, where industry professionals gather to exchange knowledge, discover new solutions and build valuable business connections.
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