TrendForce：2Q26 DRAM行业营收环比增长59.5%，供应扩张仍落后于需求增长关键事件
TrendForce最新数据显示，2Q26传统DRAM合约价大幅上涨，带动DRAM行业总营收环比增长59.5%，接近154亿美元。供应扩张持续落后于需求增长，导致价格上涨。
原文深度解读
TrendForce最新数据显示，2026年第二季度（2Q26）DRAM行业总营收环比增长59.5%，达到近154.73亿美元，主要受传统DRAM合约价大幅上涨推动。供应扩张持续落后于需求增长，AI服务器需求带动HBM3e、LPDDR5X和高容量RDIMM出货增加。三星、SK海力士、美光三大供应商表现各异，南亚、华邦、力积电等成熟制程厂商也受益于需求外溢。文章涉及时间点为2Q26，关键数字包括营收、增长率、市场份额等，与电子元器件供应链中的存储芯片环节密切相关。
- 2Q26 DRAM行业总营收环比增长59.5%，达到近154.73亿美元，主要因传统DRAM合约价大幅上涨。
- AI服务器需求增长（由LLM训练和AI推理扩展驱动）带动HBM3e、LPDDR5X和高容量RDIMM出货增加，代理式AI应用进一步提振RDIMM需求。
- 供应端，供应商库存处于历史低位，新增供应主要分配给服务器使用，导致DRAM位元出货量在第二季度仅温和增长。
- 三星在2Q26位元出货量环比增长最强，得益于其较早进入HBM4量产和出货，加上ASP大幅提升，季度营收达60.98亿美元，环比增长63.4%，市场份额39.4%居首。
- SK海力士因HBM占总位元出货比例最高，ASP增长相对有限，2Q26营收环比增长37.9%至38.59亿美元，市场份额略降至24.9%。
- 美光在产能受限下优先高价格服务器DRAM，2Q26营收环比增长65.5%至36.0亿美元，市场份额略升至23.3%。
供应链影响
- 供应扩张持续落后于需求增长，可能导致DRAM供应紧张状况延续，影响下游电子设备制造商的采购成本和交付周期。
- 三大供应商计划通过加速先进制程迁移来增加位元供应，但晶圆投片量仅温和增长，可能取决于产能优化和洁净室重新分配的实际进展。
- PC和智能手机客户对价格上涨的承受能力有限，可能导致部分需求转向低容量产品，影响不同DRAM品类的供需平衡。
- 消费级DRAM因供应商大幅减产可能价格涨幅最大，可能影响消费电子产品的成本结构。
- 成熟制程厂商（如南亚、华邦、力积电）受益于需求外溢，但力积电未来供应扩张取决于从美光获得制程技术许可的进展。
系统解读，仅作为判断线索，不构成备货、出货、涨价或投资建议。
TrendForce最新对内存行业的调查显示，传统DRAM合约价大幅上涨，带动2Q26 DRAM行业总营收环比增长59.5%，达到近154.73亿美元。
AI服务器需求的增长（由LLM训练和AI推理扩展推动）带动了HBM3e、LPDDR5X和高容量RDIMM的出货量增加。代理式AI应用的激增进一步提振了各种容量的RDIMM需求。
供应方面，供应商库存处于历史低位，新增供应主要分配给服务器使用。因此，第二季度DRAM位元出货量仅温和增长。
展望未来，位元出货量的温和增长预计将成为影响第三季度营收的关键因素之一。然而，传统DRAM合约价格涨幅预计将放缓至环比13-18%。这反映出部分需求从高容量RDIMM转向低容量产品，以及PC和智能手机客户吸收进一步涨价的能力有限。消费级DRAM预计将出现最强劲的价格增长，因为供应商已大幅削减供应。
TrendForce指出，三星在2Q26三大供应商中位元出货量环比增长最强，得益于其较早进入HBM4量产和出货。加上ASP大幅提升，三星季度营收达到60.98亿美元，环比增长63.4%。该公司以39.4%的市场份额排名第一。
SK海力士排名第二。由于HBM占其总位元出货量的比例在三大供应商中最高，ASP增长相对有限。其2Q26营收环比增长37.9%至38.59亿美元，市场份额略降至24.9%。
美光在产能受限的情况下，继续优先将更高价格的服务器DRAM纳入其产品组合。2Q26营收环比增长65.5%至36.0亿美元，市场份额略升至23.3%。TrendForce指出，从2026年到2027年，三大供应商将主要通过加速向先进制程迁移来增加位元供应。
与此同时，通过生产工艺优化、洁净室收购以及从其他产品线重新分配洁净室空间，晶圆投片量预计仅温和增长。
相比之下，南亚、华邦和力积电等供应商仍专注于成熟制程产品，其2Q26增长继续受益于三大供应商向更先进制程迁移时无法完全满足的需求。DDR4和DDR3合约价大幅上涨，推动南亚营收环比增长68.3%至26.12亿美元。华邦营收环比增长75.8%至9.98亿美元。
力积电报告的DRAM营收（主要来自消费级DRAM产品）在2Q26环比激增167.8%至1.15亿美元。包括代工营收在内，其总营收环比增长54%。展望未来，该公司在获得美光制程技术许可后，预计将开始下一阶段的供应扩张。
TrendForce’s latest findings on the memory industry reveal that sharp rises in traditional DRAM contract prices have led to a 59.5% QoQ increase in total DRAM industry revenue, reaching nearly US$154.73 billion in 2Q26.
Growing demand for AI servers, fueled by expanding LLM training and AI inference, has driven higher shipments of HBM3e, LPDDR5X, and high-capacity RDIMMS. The surge in agentic AI applications is further boosting RDIMM demand across various capacities.
On the supply side, suppliers’ inventories remain at historic lows, with additional supply mainly allocated for server use. Consequently, DRAM bit shipments grew only modestly in the second quarter.
Looking ahead, modest growth in bit shipments is expected to be one of the key factors affecting third-quarter revenue. Conventional DRAM contract price growth, however, is projected to moderate to 13–18% QoQ. This reflects a shift in some demand from high-capacity RDIMMs toward lower-capacity products, as well as the limited ability of PC and smartphone customers to absorb further price increases. Consumer DRAM is expected to post the strongest price growth, as suppliers have significantly curtailed supply.
TrendForce notes that Samsung posted the strongest QoQ bit shipment growth among the three major suppliers in 2Q26, supported by its early move into HBM4 mass production and shipments. Combined with a substantial increase in ASP, this lifted Samsung’s quarterly revenue to $60.98 billion, up 63.4% QoQ. The company ranked first with a market share of 39.4%.
SK hynix ranked second. Since HBM accounted for the highest proportion of its total bit shipments among the top three suppliers, growth in ASP was relatively limited. Its 2Q26 revenue increased 37.9% QoQ to $38.59 billion, while market share edged down to 24.9%.
Micron continued to prioritize higher-priced server DRAM in its product mix amid capacity constraints. Revenue rose 65.5% QoQ to $36.0 billion in 2Q26, lifting its market share slightly to 23.3%. TrendForce notes that from 2026 to 2027, the three major suppliers will primarily increase bit supply by accelerating migrations to advanced processes.
Meanwhile, wafer starts are expected to see only modest increases through production process optimization, cleanroom acquisitions, and the reallocation of cleanroom space from other product lines.
By comparison, suppliers such as Nanya, Winbond, and PSMC remain focused on mature-process products, with their 2Q26 growth continuing to benefit from demand that the three major suppliers can no longer fully serve as they migrate to more advanced processes. Significant increases in DDR4 and DDR3 contract prices drove Nanya’s revenue up 68.3% QoQ to $2.612 billion. Winbond’s revenue increased 75.8% QoQ to $998 million.
PSMC’s reported DRAM revenue, primarily derived from consumer DRAM products, surged 167.8% QoQ to $115 million in 2Q26. Including foundry revenue, its total revenue increased 54% QoQ. Looking ahead, the company is expected to begin its next phase of supply expansion after obtaining a process technology license from Micron.