TrendForce：台湾两大面板巨头产能合理化将重塑电视、显示器及笔记本面板供应格局，至2028年关键事件
台湾领先的面板制造商正加速工厂剥离，从追求生产规模转向聚焦高附加值产品的战略。TrendForce预计，此举将重塑电视、显示器及笔记本面板的供应格局，至2028年。
原文深度解读
本文基于TrendForce的最新研究，分析了台湾两大面板厂商群创光电（Innolux）和友达光电（AUO）加速产能整合与资产优化，预计到2028年将重塑全球LCD电视、显示器和笔记本面板的供应格局。文章涉及关键时间点（2027-2028年）、具体工厂（群创Fab 3、友达华亚厂、高雄C5E厂等）和关键数字（如群创和友达在LCD显示器面板的合计供应份额将降至10%以下，笔记本面板降至约20%，电视面板维持约22%）。文章还讨论了OLED对LCD的替代压力、中国面板厂的扩张以及先进封装技术（如FOPLP、CPO）的转型方向。
- TrendForce预计，到2028年，群创和友达在LCD显示器面板的合计供应份额将降至10%以下，笔记本面板份额降至约20%，电视面板份额维持约22%。
- 群创计划在2027年底至2028年间关闭主要生产LCD笔记本面板的Fab 3产线，原因包括8.6代OLED产线持续爬坡，加速OLED在笔记本的采用，对LCD笔记本面板形成结构性压力。
- 群创在FOPLP、CPO和TGV技术方面取得进展，Fab 3厂区可能转型为先进封装和高价值应用集成中心。
- 友达已宣布出售桃园华亚厂给广达电脑，出售高雄C5E厂给日月光科技；华亚厂包括L3D和L5D产线，预计2027年上半年停产，L3D生产转移至其他厂区，L5D产能转移至L6B和L6A产线。
- TrendForce认为，中国面板厂将继续扩大笔记本面板市场份额，同时笔记本需求转向OLED；市场将关注友达是否出售更多传统LCD笔记本产线（如L5C或L6A），若L5C出售，相邻的L7A也可能成为剥离候选。
- 若友达出售L7A，全球LCD电视面板供应面积将减少约2.1%；若关闭L6A，全球LCD显示器面板供应将减少近500万片。
供应链影响
- 台湾面板厂产能退出可能减少LCD面板的全球供应，尤其是笔记本和显示器领域，可能影响下游品牌和组装厂的采购策略。
- OLED在笔记本和显示器领域的渗透加速，可能改变面板供应链的技术路线和投资方向，传统LCD供应链可能面临调整。
- 中国面板厂份额扩大可能增强其议价能力，可能影响面板价格和供应稳定性。
- 先进封装技术（如FOPLP、CPO）的转型可能为半导体供应链带来新机遇，但取决于技术成熟度和市场需求。
- 友达和群创的工厂出售或关闭可能影响相关设备、材料供应商的订单，具体影响取决于产能转移和替代情况。
系统解读，仅作为判断线索，不构成备货、出货、涨价或投资建议。
台湾领先的显示制造商正在加速工厂剥离，从追求生产规模转向聚焦高附加值产品的战略。
TrendForce最新的显示行业研究显示，持续的产能合理化以及竞争格局的变化，预计将使群创光电（Innolux）和友达光电（AUO）在LCD显示器面板的合计供应份额到2028年降至10%以下。它们在LCD笔记本面板的合计份额预计也将下降至约20%。LCD电视面板仍相对盈利，预计将维持约22%的供应份额。
TrendForce认为，台湾面板制造商近期的产能整合和资产优化浪潮不仅仅是企业重组——它将成为重塑全球LCD电视、显示器和笔记本面板市场未来供需平衡的关键因素。
群创的旧工厂可能被重新用于先进封装
群创计划在2027年底至2028年间关闭其Fab 3生产线，该生产线主要生产LCD笔记本面板，这标志着其笔记本LCD产能将在未来几年逐步退出。
关闭的原因之一是8.6代OLED生产线的持续爬坡，这正在加速OLED在笔记本PC中的采用，并对传统LCD笔记本面板的定价和需求构成结构性压力。
此外，群创在扇出型面板级封装（FOPLP）、共封装光学（CPO）和玻璃通孔（TGV）技术方面取得了进展。因此，Fab 3厂区最终可能转型为先进封装和高价值应用集成中心。TrendForce认为，这一转型将增强公司的业务韧性，同时减少其长期价格竞争的风险。
友达将投资转向Micro LED、AI和CPO，进一步聚焦产能整合
友达加速转型，将资本转向Micro LED、AI相关技术和基于CPO的先进封装。该公司最近宣布将其桃园华亚厂出售给广达电脑（Quanta Computer），并将其高雄C5E厂出售给日月光科技（ASE Technology）。
TrendForce指出，华亚厂包括L3D和L5D生产线，预计均将在2027年上半年停止运营。L3D曾是Garmin智能手表面板的主要生产基地，关闭后其生产将转移至其他厂区。
L5D主要生产汽车、工业和医疗显示面板，其产能将转移至L6B和L6A生产线。随着友达继续精简其open cell产能，该公司还决定出售C5E彩色滤光片厂。
TrendForce认为，中国面板制造商将继续扩大其在笔记本面板市场的份额，而笔记本需求日益转向OLED。在此背景下，市场将密切关注友达是否为额外的传统LCD笔记本生产线（如L5C或L6A）寻找买家。如果L5C被出售，同一厂区相邻的L7A设施也可能成为剥离候选，这可能对全球显示行业产生重大影响。
产能合理化将重塑三大面板应用的供需动态
对于LCD电视面板市场，由于没有重大的新产能投资以及大尺寸化趋势的持续，预计2026年至2030年间供应将保持健康但相对紧张的状态。如果友达最终出售其L7A设施，全球LCD电视面板供应面积将下降约2.1%，进一步收紧市场供应。
在LCD显示器面板市场，TrendForce估计，2026年中国前三大面板制造商将占全球LCD显示器面板供应的74%。加上LG Display持续减少LCD生产以转向OLED，LCD显示器面板的供需平衡预计将日益稳定。
如果友达关闭其L6A工厂，全球LCD显示器面板供应将减少近500万片。这种减少将实质性收紧市场状况，同时也引发一个问题：是否有更多8.6代OLED制造商将资源分配给显示器面板生产，从而加速OLED渗透。
对于笔记本面板市场，随着领先笔记本品牌越来越多地将未来产品组合转向OLED显示屏，OLED的采用预计将迅速加速。这一趋势将进一步加剧本已供应过剩的LCD笔记本面板市场。
TrendForce指出，关闭主要生产LCD笔记本面板的生产线已变得越来越不可避免。出售L5C和L6A不仅将减轻友达持续运营亏损带来的财务负担，还将有助于改善整个LCD笔记本面板市场的供需失衡。
Taiwan’s leading display manufacturers are accelerating factory divestments as they shift away from competing on production scale toward a strategy focused on high-value-added products.
TrendForce’s latest display industry research reveals that continued capacity rationalization and changes in the competitive landscape are expected to reduce the combined LCD monitor panel supply share of Innolux and AUO to below 10% by 2028. Their combined share of the LCD notebook panel is also projected to decline to around 20%. LCD TV panels, which remain relatively profitable, are expected to maintain a supply share of approximately 22%.
TrendForce believes that the recent wave of capacity consolidation and asset optimization by Taiwanese panel makers represents more than corporate restructuring—it will become a key factor reshaping the future supply-demand balance of the global LCD TV, monitor, and notebook panel markets.
Innolux’s older fab may be repurposed for advanced packaging
Innolux plans to shut down its Fab 3 production line, which primarily manufactures LCD notebook panels, between late 2027 and 2028, marking the gradual withdrawal of its notebook LCD capacity over the coming years.
One reason behind the shutdown is the continued ramp-up of 8.6-generation OLED production lines, which is accelerating OLED adoption in notebook PCs and placing structural pressure on pricing and demand for conventional LCD notebook panels.
Additionally, Innolux has made progress in fan-out panel-level packaging (FOPLP), co-packaged optics (CPO), and through-glass via (TGV) technologies. As a result, the Fab 3 site could eventually be transformed into an advanced packaging and high-value application integration center. TrendForce believes this transition would strengthen the company’s business resilience while reducing its exposure to prolonged price competition.
AUO redirects investment toward Micro LED, AI, and CPO as further capacity consolidation comes into focus
AUO has accelerated its transformation by redirecting capital toward Micro LED, AI-related technologies, and CPO-based advanced packaging. The company recently announced the sale of its Hwa Ya Plant in Taoyuan to Quanta Computer and its Kaohsiung C5E facility to ASE Technology.
TrendForce notes that the Hwa Ya site includes the L3D and L5D production lines, both of which are expected to cease operations during the first half of 2027. L3D, formerly the primary production site for Garmin smartwatch panels, will have its production transferred to other facilities after closure.
L5D, which mainly produces automotive, industrial, and medical display panels, will have its capacity relocated to the L6B and L6A production lines. As AUO continues to streamline its open cell capacity, the company has also decided to sell the C5E color filter plant.
TrendForce believes that Chinese panel makers will continue expanding their share of the notebook panel market while notebook demand increasingly shifts toward OLED. Against this backdrop, the market will closely watch whether AUO seeks buyers for additional legacy LCD notebook production lines, such as L5C or L6A. If L5C is sold, the adjacent L7A facility on the same site could also become a divestment candidate, with potentially significant implications for the global display industry.
Capacity rationalization will reshape supply-demand dynamics across three major panel applications
For the LCD TV panel market, the absence of major new capacity investments and a continued trend toward larger screen sizes are expected to keep supply in a healthy but relatively tight state between 2026 and 2030. If AUO ultimately sells its L7A facility, global LCD TV panel supply area would decline by approximately 2.1%, further tightening market supply.
In the LCD monitor panel market, TrendForce estimates that China’s top three panel makers will account for 74% of global LCD monitor panel supply in 2026. Together with LG Display’s continued reduction of LCD production in favor of OLED, the supply-demand balance for LCD monitor panels is expected to become increasingly stable.
If AUO proceeds with the closure of its L6A fab, the global supply of LCD monitor panels would decrease by nearly 5 million units. Such a reduction would materially tighten market conditions while also raising the question of whether more 8.6-generation OLED manufacturers will allocate resources to monitor panel production, thereby accelerating OLED penetration.
For the notebook panel market, OLED adoption is expected to accelerate rapidly as leading notebook brands increasingly transition future product portfolios toward OLED displays. This trend will further exacerbate the already oversupplied LCD notebook panel market.
TrendForce notes that shutting down production lines dedicated primarily to LCD notebook panels has become increasingly unavoidable. The sale of L5C and L6A would not only reduce AUO’s financial burden from continued operating losses but also help improve the supply-demand imbalance across the broader LCD notebook panel market.