Micron Posts Another Record Year as 35% of 2030 Revenue Already Contracted
Micron Technology Inc. posted record annual results as memory demand fueled by artificial intelligence investment conti
原文深度解读
本文报道美光科技（Micron Technology Inc.）发布创纪录的2026财年业绩：全年营收约1331.88亿美元，DRAM营收首次突破1000亿美元，季度营业利润率再次达到80%区间，全年超过70%。文章还披露第四季度各业务单元均创纪录、已签署26份战略客户协议（SCA）覆盖至2030年超过35%的预计营收、以及公司在美国、日本、台湾、新加坡等地扩产和2027财年资本支出计划。与电子元器件供应链的关系在于：美光作为DRAM与NAND存储器的核心供应商，其营收、定价、长约锁定和产能扩张节奏，直接反映并影响存储器件供需、交期与下游AI服务器、数据中心、手机、汽车等领域的供给稳定性。
- 美光2026财年（2025年8月29日至2026年9月3日）营收约1331.88亿美元，同比增长256%；其中DRAM营收约1006.79亿美元，占总营收76%，同比增长252%，首次突破1000亿美元；NAND营收317.85亿美元，同比增长274%。
- 全年GAAP营业利润993.4亿美元，营业利润率74.6%；毛利率80.7%，同比提升40.9个百分点；摊薄每股收益74.33美元，上年为7.59美元，增长9.8倍。
- 第四季度营收542.29亿美元，环比增长31%，同比增长379%，为连续第六个季度创纪录；GAAP营业利润437.51亿美元，营业利润率80.7%，毛利率86.8%，EPS为32.87美元；当季收到与战略客户协议相关的预付款123亿美元，客户预付款余额127亿美元。
- 四个业务单元第四季度均创纪录：CNBU营收180.02亿美元（占总营收33%，同比增长1042%，营业利润率85%）；CMBU营收162.83亿美元（约占30%，同比增长258%，营业利润率76%）；MCBU营收131.14亿美元（占24%，同比增长249%，营业利润率88%）；AEBU营收68.24亿美元（同比增长376%，营业利润率79%）。数据中心SSD营收同比增长超过十倍至约100亿美元，占NAND总营收三分之二以上。
- 美光已签署26份新的或延长的SCA，覆盖至2030年预计营收的35%以上，合同期限延长至2031年；约75%的预期SCA营收有明确定价机制，多数协议包含价格下限和上限；按最低价格计算的最低合同积压（RPO）约1500亿美元，26家SCA客户的财务承诺（含担保和终止付款）增至320亿美元，其中大部分为现金。
- 美光预计2027财年好于2026财年，2027和2028财年DRAM与NAND供需将明显趋紧；纽约首座晶圆厂目标2030年首次晶圆生产，爱达荷ID1计划2027年中投产、ID2计划2028年下半年投产，日本广岛DRAM厂扩产计划2028年下半年初步生产，台湾台中厂计划明年年中开始全面出货，新加坡先进HBM封装厂计划明年初投产；2027财年第一季度资本支出约115亿美元，上半年约250亿美元，并计划从2028年下半年起大幅增加建设支出。
供应链影响
- 美光DRAM与NAND营收和利润率大幅提升，可能反映存储器件供需偏紧；若这一态势延续，下游AI服务器、数据中心、手机与汽车客户可能面临交期拉长或供应分配趋紧的风险，具体取决于各客户合约覆盖程度。
- SCA采用照付不议（take-or-pay）并覆盖至2030年超过35%的预计营收，可能提高美光未来收入的可见度，同时可能使未纳入长约的现货市场客户在供应紧张时获取产能的难度上升。
- 约75%的SCA营收设有价格下限和上限，可能在一定程度上平抑存储价格剧烈波动对美光及其客户的影响，但实际效果取决于价格区间设定与市场供需变化。
- 美光在多地扩产（纽约、爱达荷、广岛、台中、新加坡）并计划2028年下半年起大幅增加建设支出，可能在中长期增加存储与HBM封装产能；但新增产能落地时间集中在2027至2030年，短期供应弹性可能仍然有限。
- 美光为英伟达开发定制HBM4E产品NVHBM并计划明年全面量产，可能加深存储原厂与GPU平台的绑定，进而影响HBM及相关先进封装供应链的产能分配与客户结构。
系统解读，仅作为判断线索，不构成备货、出货、涨价或投资建议。
美光位于美国加利福尼亚州圣何塞的大楼。（照片=美光。）
美光科技公司（Micron Technology Inc.）公布创纪录的年度业绩，受人工智能投资推动的存储需求持续，年度DRAM营收首次突破1000亿美元。季度营业利润率再次达到80%区间，全年利润率超过70%。
美光于当地时间9月30日公布2026财年业绩，覆盖上一年的8月29日至本年的9月3日。营收达到约1331.88亿美元，创历史新高，较上年同期的373.78亿美元增长256%。
DRAM营收约为1006.79亿美元，占总营收的76%。它较上年同期增长252%，首次超过1000亿美元。NAND营收为317.85亿美元，较上年同期增长274%。
按美国公认会计原则（GAAP）计算的年度营业利润为993.4亿美元，营业利润率为74.6%。毛利率为80.7%，较上年同期提升40.9个百分点。摊薄每股收益（EPS）从上年同期的7.59美元增长9.8倍至74.33美元。美光报告的数据与其2026财年业绩发布一致。
年度经营现金流为896.75亿美元，调整后自由现金流（FCF）为623.08亿美元，资本支出总计273.67亿美元。财年末总流动性为754.8亿美元。
◇第四季度营收也创纪录，所有业务单元均创纪录
美光的四个业务单元均公布创纪录的季度业绩。（数据=美光。）
2026财年第四季度营收为542.29亿美元，较上一季度增长31%，较上年同期增长379%，为连续第六个季度创纪录。
第四季度仅DRAM营收就达397.71亿美元。位元出货量增长中个位数百分比，而由于供需紧张，平均售价（ASP）上涨高个位数百分比。第四季度NAND营收为141.02亿美元，较上一季度增长42%。位元出货量增长约10%，而ASP上涨约30%。
第四季度按GAAP计算的营业利润为437.51亿美元，较上一季度增长31.3%。GAAP营业利润率为80.7%，毛利率为86.8%，EPS为32.87美元。它们分别增长0.3个百分点、2.2个百分点和33.2%。美光在第四季度收到与战略客户协议（SCA）相关的123亿美元预付款，而客户预付款余额为127亿美元。
具体来看，美光的四个业务单元均公布创纪录的季度业绩。核心的计算与网络业务单元（CNBU）实现180.02亿美元，占总营收的33%。营收较上年同期激增1042%。其营业利润率为85%，较上年同期的25%提升60个百分点。
数据中心固态硬盘（SSD）营收较上年同期增长超过十倍，达到约100亿美元，占NAND总营收的三分之二以上。增长由AI上下文存储需求以及硬盘驱动器（HDD）替代品需求增加推动。
云存储业务单元（CMBU）实现营收162.83亿美元，约占公司总营收的30%。受高带宽存储器（HBM）出货量增加推动，营收较上年同期增长258%。其营业利润率为76%，较上年同期提升28个百分点，得益于高价值产品组合占比提高。
移动与客户端业务单元（MCBU）实现131.14亿美元，占总营收的24%。随着存储价格上涨，营收较上年同期增长249%。先进1-gamma（1γ）产品占MCBU营收的近一半。其营业利润率为88%，为各业务单元中最高。
汽车与嵌入式业务单元（AEBU）实现营收68.24亿美元，受价格上涨和出货量增加推动，较上年同期增长376%。其营业利润率为79%。
◇已签署26份SCA，覆盖至2030年超过35%的营收
美光正在为英伟达开发NVHBM，这是一款定制HBM4E产品。（照片=英伟达。）
美光正在大幅扩大SCA，以确保长期供应稳定并提高财务可预测性。SCA是具有法律约束力的照付不议安排。客户须在协议期内接收合同约定的存储量。即使不接收产品，也必须向美光支付全部合同金额。
美光迄今已签署26份新的或延长的SCA。到2030年预计营收的35%以上预计将来自SCA。合同条款正延长至2031年。约75%的预期SCA营收有明确的定价机制覆盖，其中大多数协议包含价格下限和上限。这形成了一个区间，旨在限制存储价格大幅上涨或下跌对美光及其客户的影响。
按最低价格（即下限）计算，最低合同积压（即剩余履约义务，RPO）约为1500亿美元。26家SCA客户的财务承诺总额（包括担保和终止付款）已增至320亿美元。大部分承诺为现金。
美光还已敲定明年大部分HBM供应量的合同。公司实现了高于上年同期的涨价，缩小了与传统DRAM的毛利率差距。其HBM4量产爬坡和良率优化也在没有重大中断的情况下推进。
美光还在为英伟达开发NVHBM，这是一款定制HBM4E产品。全面量产计划于明年进行。该产品预计将与下一代图形处理器（GPU）和NVLink Fusion平台配合使用。NVLink Fusion是英伟达面向AI基础设施的开放互连技术和规范。英伟达将NVHBM描述为与领先存储供应商共同设计的定制下一代HBM架构。
◇随着资本支出上升，预计明年及以后存储供需状况将恶化
美光位于纽约的晶圆厂，于7月开工建设。（照片=美光。）
美光董事长兼首席执行官桑杰·梅赫罗特拉（Sanjay Mehrotra）表示：“我们预计2027财年将好于2026财年”，并补充说自上次财报发布以来行业需求已增强，预计2027财年和2028财年DRAM和NAND供需状况将变得更为紧张。
美光正在全球扩大产能，以满足延续至2030年以后的客户需求。其位于美国的首座纽约晶圆厂已进入混凝土浇筑阶段，目标2030年首次晶圆生产。爱达荷的ID1晶圆厂计划于2027年中开始生产，而ID2预计于2028年下半年开始生产。
美光为其日本广岛DRAM晶圆厂扩建举行了奠基仪式。初步生产计划于2028年下半年进行。其台湾台中工厂计划从明年年中开始全面产品出货。其新加坡先进HBM封装厂已完成洁净室准备，计划于明年初开始生产。公司还在建设一座新的NAND晶圆厂，目标2028年下半年投产。
美光预计2027财年第一季度资本支出约为115亿美元，上半年约为250亿美元。公司计划从2028年下半年起大幅增加建设支出，以获取更多洁净室空间。
美光预测第一季度营收为615亿美元，上下浮动15亿美元。公司预计将再创季度纪录。它预测GAAP毛利率为85.95%，摊薄EPS为37.84美元，上下浮动1.00美元。预计利润率在第一季度最低，并从第二季度起进一步提高。
Micron’s building in San Jose, California, US. (Photo=Micron.)
Micron Technology Inc. posted record annual results as memory demand fueled by artificial intelligence investment continued, with annual DRAM revenue topping $100 billion for the first time. Quarterly operating margin again reached the 80% range, while the full-year margin exceeded 70%.
Micron reported results for fiscal 2026 on Sept. 30, local time, covering the period from Aug. 29 last year through Sept. 3 this year. Revenue reached about $133.188 billion, a record high and up 256% from $37.378 billion a year earlier.
DRAM revenue was about $100.679 billion, accounting for 76% of total revenue. It rose 252% from a year earlier, surpassing $100 billion for the first time. NAND revenue was $31.785 billion, up 274% from a year earlier.
Annual operating income under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) was $99.34 billion, with an operating margin of 74.6%. Gross margin was 80.7%, improving 40.9 percentage points from a year earlier. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) rose 9.8 times to $74.33 from $7.59 a year earlier. Micron’s reported figures are consistent with its fiscal 2026 results release.
Annual operating cash flow was $89.675 billion, adjusted free cash flow (FCF) was $62.308 billion and capital expenditures totaled $27.367 billion. Total liquidity at the end of the fiscal year was $75.48 billion.
◇Fourth-Quarter Revenue Also Hits Record as All Business Units Post Records
All four of Micron’s business units posted record quarterly results. (Data=Micron.)
Revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 was $54.229 billion, up 31% from the previous quarter and 379% from a year earlier, marking a sixth consecutive quarterly record.
Fourth-quarter DRAM revenue alone was $39.771 billion. Bit shipments increased by a mid-single-digit percentage, while average selling prices (ASPs) rose in the high-single-digit percentage range due to tight supply and demand. Fourth-quarter NAND revenue was $14.102 billion, up 42% from the previous quarter. Bit shipments increased about 10%, while ASPs rose about 30%.
Fourth-quarter operating income was $43.751 billion on a GAAP basis, up 31.3% from the previous quarter. The GAAP operating margin was 80.7%, gross margin was 86.8% and EPS was $32.87. They increased by 0.3 percentage point, 2.2 percentage points and 33.2%, respectively. Micron received $12.3 billion in advance payments related to strategic customer agreements (SCAs) during the fourth quarter, while the balance of customer prepayments stood at $12.7 billion.
In detail, all four of Micron’s business units posted record quarterly results. The core Compute and Networking Business Unit (CNBU) generated $18.002 billion, or 33% of total revenue. Revenue surged 1,042% from a year earlier. Its operating margin was 85%, improving 60 percentage points from 25% a year earlier.
Data-center solid-state drive (SSD) revenue increased more than tenfold from a year earlier to about $10 billion, accounting for more than two-thirds of total NAND revenue. The growth was driven by demand for memory storage for AI context and increased demand for alternatives to hard-disk drives (HDDs).
The Cloud Memory Business Unit (CMBU) generated $16.283 billion in revenue, accounting for about 30% of total company revenue. Revenue increased 258% from a year earlier on higher shipments of high-bandwidth memory (HBM). Its operating margin was 76%, up 28 percentage points from a year earlier, helped by a higher mix of high-value products.
The Mobile and Client Business Unit (MCBU) generated $13.114 billion, or 24% of total revenue. Revenue increased 249% from a year earlier as memory prices rose. Advanced 1-gamma (1γ) products accounted for nearly half of MCBU revenue. Its operating margin was 88%, the highest among the business units.
The Automotive and Embedded Business Unit (AEBU) generated $6.824 billion in revenue, up 376% from a year earlier on higher prices and increased shipments. Its operating margin was 79%.
◇26 SCAs Signed, Covering More Than 35% of Revenue Through 2030
Micron is developing NVHBM, a custom HBM4E product for NVIDIA. (Photo=NVIDIA.)
Micron is significantly expanding SCAs to secure long-term supply stability and improve financial predictability. SCAs are legally binding take-or-pay arrangements. Customers are required to take the contracted memory volumes during the agreement period. Even if they do not take the products, they must pay Micron the full contracted amount.
Micron has so far signed 26 new or extended SCAs. More than 35% of projected revenue through 2030 is expected to come from SCAs. Contract terms are being extended through 2031. About 75% of expected SCA revenue is covered by a clear pricing mechanism, with most of those agreements incorporating price floors and ceilings. This creates a range intended to limit the impact of sharp increases or declines in memory prices for both Micron and its customers.
The minimum contracted backlog, or remaining performance obligations (RPOs), is about $150 billion based on the minimum price, or floor. The total financial commitments from the 26 SCA customers, including guarantees and termination payments, have increased to $32 billion. Most of the commitments are in cash.
Micron has also finalized contracts for most of its HBM supply volumes for next year. The company achieved higher price increases than a year earlier, narrowing the gross-margin gap with conventional DRAM. Its HBM4 production ramp and yield optimization are also progressing without major disruptions.
Micron is also developing NVHBM, a custom HBM4E product for NVIDIA. Full-scale production is scheduled for next year. The product is expected to be used with next-generation graphics processing units (GPUs) and the NVLink Fusion platform. NVLink Fusion is NVIDIA’s open interconnect technology and specification for AI infrastructure. NVIDIA describes NVHBM as a custom next-generation HBM architecture designed with leading memory providers.
◇Memory Supply-Demand Conditions Seen Worsening Next Year and Beyond as Capex Rises
Micron’s New York fab, where construction began in July. (Photo=Micron.)
Micron Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Sanjay Mehrotra said, “We expect fiscal 2027 to be better than fiscal 2026,” adding that industry demand had strengthened since the previous earnings announcement and that DRAM and NAND supply-demand conditions in fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 are expected to become much tighter.
Micron is expanding production capacity worldwide to meet customer demand extending beyond 2030. Its first New York fab in the US has reached the concrete-pouring stage, with initial wafer production targeted for 2030. The ID1 fab in Idaho is scheduled to begin production in mid-2027, while ID2 is expected to start production in the second half of 2028.
Micron held a groundbreaking ceremony for an expansion of its DRAM fab in Hiroshima, Japan. Initial production is planned for the second half of 2028. Its Taichung facility in Taiwan is scheduled to begin full-scale product shipments from the middle of next year. Its advanced HBM packaging plant in Singapore has completed cleanroom preparations and is scheduled to begin production early next year. The company is also building a new NAND fab with production targeted for the second half of 2028.
Micron expects capital expenditures of about $11.5 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 and about $25 billion in the first half. It plans to significantly increase construction spending from the second half of 2028 to secure additional cleanroom space.
Micron forecast first-quarter revenue of $61.5 billion, plus or minus $1.5 billion. The company expects to set another quarterly record. It forecast a GAAP gross margin of 85.95% and diluted EPS of $37.84, plus or minus $1.00. The margin is expected to be lowest in the first quarter and increase further from the second quarter.