三星、SK海力士和美光加快HBM4良率竞赛
三星电子、SK海力士和美光正加大力度提升HBM4（最新一代高带宽存储器）的良率。此前，传统DRAM的价格涨幅在经历一段时间后开始放缓。
原文深度解读
本文报道了三星电子、SK海力士和美光在HBM4（第六代高带宽存储器）良率提升上的竞争。文章指出，随着传统DRAM价格涨幅放缓，存储器厂商将重点转向高利润的HBM产品。三星率先量产HBM4，良率约70%，得益于1C DRAM工艺；SK海力士计划增加设备以扩大产能，维持全球HBM市场份额过半；美光加速提升良率和产能。HBM4预计用于英伟达Vera Rubin AI加速器，将于下半年推出。文章还提到DRAM价格涨幅预期放缓，而HBM需求持续增长。
- 三星电子、SK海力士和美光正加大HBM4良率提升力度，HBM4是第六代高带宽存储器，计划用于英伟达Vera Rubin AI加速器，该加速器将于下半年推出。
- 三星电子是三家中最先量产HBM4的公司，其HBM4良率估计约为70%，得益于1C DRAM工艺，该工艺生产稳定性率超过80%。
- SK海力士未披露HBM4良率，但行业消息称生产接近稳定，计划引入额外设备以优化生产并扩大产能，正在与多家设备供应商讨论下半年设备订单。
- SK海力士的目标是在行业向HBM4过渡时保持全球HBM市场超过一半的份额。
- 美光在制造产能上落后于韩国竞争对手，但正加速提升良率和扩大生产，进行大规模设施投资。
- 传统DRAM价格在第一季度环比几乎翻倍，预计第二季度上涨30%至50%，第三季度上涨0%至20%；而HBM需求持续增长，价格预计保持上升趋势。
供应链影响
- HBM4良率提升可能增加下半年HBM供应量，影响AI加速器供应链的存储器供应稳定性。
- SK海力士的额外设备订单可能扩大其HBM4产能，取决于设备交付和良率改善情况，可能影响全球HBM市场份额分配。
- 美光的产能扩张可能缩小与韩国厂商的差距，但取决于其良率提升速度，可能影响HBM市场竞争格局。
- 传统DRAM价格涨幅放缓可能促使厂商将产能转向HBM，可能影响标准DRAM的供应和价格。
- HBM4需求增长可能持续，但供应增加取决于各厂商良率和产能爬坡，可能影响下游AI芯片的出货节奏。
系统解读，仅作为判断线索，不构成备货、出货、涨价或投资建议。
三星电子HBM4产品。（图片来源：三星电子）
三星电子、SK海力士和美光正加大力度提升HBM4（最新一代高带宽存储器）的良率。随着传统DRAM价格涨幅在推动强劲盈利后开始放缓，存储器制造商正专注于利润率更高的HBM产品，以最大化盈利能力。
据行业消息人士7月21日透露，这三家公司正在推行最大化HBM4良率的策略。HBM4是第六代高带宽存储器，计划用于英伟达的Vera Rubin AI加速器，该加速器将于下半年推出。
三星电子是三家中首家开始量产HBM4的公司，据报道在提升产量后良率迅速改善。一些行业估计三星的HBM4良率约为70%，反映出经过数月量产经验后，良率管理显著改善。
这一进展得益于三星的1C DRAM工艺，该工艺今年早些时候生产稳定性率超过80%，并帮助提高了整体HBM4良率。
SK海力士HBM4。图片来源：李东根（foto@etnews.com）
尽管SK海力士未披露其HBM4良率，但行业消息人士认为生产正接近稳定水平。该公司还计划引入额外设备以优化HBM4生产并扩大制造产能。目前正与多家工艺设备供应商讨论下半年的设备订单。
一家半导体设备公司的高级高管表示，SK海力士正在准备额外设备订单以扩大HBM4产能，并补充说良率改善预计将支持更高的出货量。
SK海力士的目标是在行业向HBM4过渡时保持其全球HBM市场超过一半份额的竞争优势。
美光在制造产能上落后于其韩国竞争对手，也在加速提升良率和扩大生产。该公司正在进行大规模设施投资，预计将在提高良率的同时提升量产。
美光最新的HBM4。
良率是指半导体总产出中功能正常芯片的比例。更高的良率增加了可出货的芯片数量，直接提高盈利能力，使良率提升成为半导体制造商的首要任务。
HBM4预计将成为下半年存储器制造商的关键利润驱动力。尽管HBM通常比传统DRAM带来更高的运营利润率，但近期主流DRAM的短缺暂时将DRAM利润率推至高于HBM的水平。
随着传统DRAM价格涨幅预计放缓，HBM再次成为主要盈利驱动力。传统DRAM价格在第一季度环比几乎翻倍，预计第二季度上涨30%至50%，第三季度上涨0%至20%。
相比之下，HBM需求持续增长，价格预计保持上升趋势，巩固其作为高利润产品的地位。
一位行业官员表示，三星电子在率先量产后，已在第二季度反映了HBM出货量增加和盈利能力改善带来的大部分收益。
该官员补充说，这一趋势预计将在下半年持续，加剧三家存储器制造商在提升HBM4良率方面的竞争。
全球HBM季度市场份额——来源：Counterpoint Research
Samsung Electronics HBM4 product. (Photo: Samsung Electronics)
Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron are stepping up efforts to improve yields for HBM4, the latest generation of high-bandwidth memory. As price gains for conventional DRAM begin to slow after driving strong earnings, memory makers are focusing on higher-margin HBM products to maximize profitability.
According to industry sources on July 21, the three companies are pursuing strategies to maximize HBM4 yields. HBM4, the sixth-generation high-bandwidth memory, is scheduled to be used in Nvidia's Vera Rubin AI accelerators, which are set to launch in the second half of the year.
Samsung Electronics, the first of the three to begin mass production of HBM4, is reported to have rapidly improved yields after ramping up production. Some industry estimates put Samsung's HBM4 yield at around 70%, reflecting significant improvements in yield management after several months of mass-production experience.
The gains have been supported by Samsung's 1C DRAM process, which surpassed an 80% production stability rate earlier this year and helped improve overall HBM4 yields.
SK Hynix HBM4. Photo by Lee Dong-geun (foto@etnews.com).
Although SK Hynix has not disclosed its HBM4 yields, industry sources believe production is approaching stable levels. The company is also planning to introduce additional equipment to optimize HBM4 production and expand manufacturing capacity. It is currently discussing equipment orders for the second half of the year with multiple process equipment suppliers.
A senior executive at a semiconductor equipment company said SK Hynix is preparing additional equipment orders to expand HBM4 production capacity, adding that improved yields are expected to support higher shipment volumes.
SK Hynix aims to maintain its competitive advantage of holding more than half of the global HBM market as the industry transitions to HBM4.
Micron, which trails its Korean rivals in manufacturing capacity, is also accelerating efforts to improve yields and expand production. The company is making large-scale facility investments and is expected to ramp up mass production while increasing yields.
Micron's latest HBM4.
Yield refers to the proportion of properly functioning chips among total semiconductor output. Higher yields increase the number of chips available for shipment, directly improving profitability, making yield improvement a top priority for semiconductor manufacturers.
HBM4 is expected to be the key profit driver for memory makers in the second half of the year. Although HBM typically delivers higher operating margins than conventional DRAM, recent shortages in mainstream DRAM temporarily pushed DRAM margins above those of HBM.
As price increases for conventional DRAM are expected to moderate, HBM is once again emerging as the main earnings driver. Conventional DRAM prices, which nearly doubled quarter on quarter in the first quarter, are expected to rise by 30% to 50% in the second quarter and by 0% to 20% in the third quarter.
By contrast, demand for HBM continues to grow, and prices are expected to remain on an upward trend, reinforcing its position as a high-margin product.
An industry official said Samsung Electronics had already reflected much of the benefit from higher HBM shipments and improved profitability in the second quarter after starting mass production ahead of its rivals.
The official added that the trend is expected to continue in the second half of the year, intensifying competition among the three memory makers to improve HBM4 yields.
Global HBM Quarterly Market Share — Source: Counterpoint Research