TrendForce：2027年NAND闪存供应增长将超过需求，下半年供应紧张缓解
TrendForce 7月NAND闪存月度更新显示，2026年全年NAND闪存市场持续供不应求，原因是AI相关需求激增且产能扩张有限。预计2027年供应增长将超过需求，下半年供应紧张状况将缓解。
原文深度解读
TrendForce 2026年7月NAND闪存月度更新报告指出，2026年NAND闪存市场因AI需求激增和产能扩张有限而持续供不应求，预计2027年供应增长将超过需求，下半年供应紧张状况将缓解。文章涉及TrendForce、Intel、AMD、NVIDIA、Google等公司，关键数字包括2026年服务器出货量同比增长17%、中国供应商全球NAND位产出占比接近19%、2026年智能手机产量同比下降15-20%、2026年NAND闪存市场供应缺口4-5%。该文章与电子元器件供应链直接相关，分析了NAND闪存供需动态、服务器和消费电子需求变化及供应商产能策略。
- TrendForce 7月NAND闪存更新显示，2026年NAND闪存市场持续供不应求，原因是AI相关需求激增和产能扩张有限。
- 2027年服务器需求预计保持强劲，但供应商持续工艺迁移、位产出稳步增长和消费电子需求疲软可能逐渐恢复市场平衡，供应紧张预计在2027年下半年缓解。
- 2026年NAND闪存供应商主要依赖工艺节点迁移满足需求，因为现有晶圆厂空间受限，制造商优先扩大DRAM产能，这些限制预计持续到2027年。
- 韩国、美国、日本供应商可能继续升级现有生产线并选择性扩大产出；中国供应商因新设备投产预计大幅提升产能，全球NAND位产出占比接近19%。
- Intel和AMD下一代服务器平台出货预计2026年下半年加速，推动全年服务器出货量同比增长17%；2027年Agentic AI应用商业化预计维持通用服务器需求，组件可用性改善（包括服务器CPU供应限制缓解和长期供应协议下内存供应更稳定）预计进一步加速服务器出货增长。
- 智能手机和笔记本需求持续疲软：TrendForce预测2026年全球智能手机产量同比下降15-20%，2027年可能再次下降但幅度更温和；笔记本出货量2026年下降约10%，2027年因组件成本高企可能小幅下降。
供应链影响
- 2026年NAND闪存供应短缺可能持续，影响依赖NAND的电子设备制造商，如智能手机和笔记本厂商，可能导致组件成本上升和交货周期延长。
- 中国供应商产能扩张可能改变全球NAND供应格局，影响市场定价和竞争态势，具体取决于新设备投产进度和良率提升情况。
- 服务器需求强劲可能优先分配NAND供应，消费电子领域可能面临更紧张的供应，取决于供应商的客户优先级策略。
- 2027年下半年供应紧张缓解可能改善组件可用性，但具体影响取决于需求恢复速度和供应商产能爬坡情况。
- 长期供应协议（LTAs）可能稳定内存供应，但可能影响现货市场价格波动，具体取决于协议覆盖范围和执行情况。
系统解读，仅作为判断线索，不构成备货、出货、涨价或投资建议。
TrendForce 7月NAND闪存月度更新显示，2026年全年NAND闪存市场持续供不应求，原因是AI相关需求激增且产能扩张有限。
展望2027年，服务器需求预计保持强劲。然而，供应商持续的工艺迁移、位产出稳步增长以及消费电子需求持续疲软，可能逐渐恢复市场平衡。因此，当前的供应紧张预计将在2027年下半年缓解。
TrendForce指出，2026年NAND闪存供应商将主要依靠工艺节点迁移来满足上升的需求，因为现有晶圆厂空间受限，制造商继续优先扩大DRAM产能。这些产能限制预计将持续到2027年。
因此，韩国、美国和日本供应商可能继续升级现有生产线，并在现有设施选择性扩大产出，以增加市场供应。与此同时，随着新制造设备投产，中国供应商预计将大幅提升产能，将其在全球NAND闪存位产出中的份额提高到接近19%。
Intel和AMD的下一代服务器平台出货预计将在2026年下半年加速，推动全年服务器出货量同比增长17%。
展望2027年，Agentic AI应用商业化预计将维持通用服务器需求。同时，组件可用性的改善——包括服务器CPU供应限制的显著缓解和长期供应协议（LTAs）下内存供应更加稳定——预计将消除系统生产的关键瓶颈。这些因素共同预计将进一步加速2027年服务器出货增长。
相比之下，智能手机和笔记本PC市场的需求持续疲软。TrendForce预测2026年全球智能手机产量同比下降15-20%。尽管支持AI的高端智能手机预计将支撑高端市场需求，但终端市场需求复苏有限和消费者价格敏感度上升，可能导致2027年智能手机产量再次下降，尽管幅度更为温和。
笔记本市场预计也将面临压力。在2026年出货量估计下降约10%之后，由于内存和CPU等组件成本持续高企，2027年笔记本出货量预计将再次小幅下降。
TrendForce指出，尽管服务器现在占NAND闪存总位需求的40%以上，但智能手机和笔记本合计仍占整体需求的近40%，这意味着消费市场在决定整体市场状况方面继续发挥决定性作用。
与此同时，NAND闪存制造商继续维持相对精简的库存水平。虽然模块制造商因消费需求疲软积累了较高库存，但其他客户群持有的库存基本受控。基于这些供需动态，TrendForce估计2026年NAND闪存市场将出现4-5%的供应缺口，导致持续短缺。然而，供需平衡预计将在2027年下半年转为正，使供应限制逐渐缓解。
更多内存行业分析
领先芯片制造商和CSPs已通过硬件和软件创新来克服内存瓶颈，因为2026年上半年激增的KV Cache需求与受限的内存供应相冲突。Penguin Solutions、Marvell和Meta推出了KV Cache服务器和CXL交换机，以扩展内存层级并增加有效内存容量。同时，NVIDIA和Google开发了KVTC和TurboQuant等技术来压缩KV Cache并减少内存消耗。
TrendForce在其报告《克服内存瓶颈：CXL扩展和KV Cache压缩创新》中提供了对这些架构创新的深入分析。如需更全面的市场数据和技术见解，请参阅以下链接的完整报告：https://www.trendforce.com/research/download/RP260715HU
TrendForce’s monthly July NAND Flash update reveals that the NAND Flash market has remained undersupplied throughout 2026, driven by surging AI-related demand and limited capacity expansion.
Looking towards 2027, server demand is anticipated to stay strong. However, ongoing process migrations by suppliers, steady growth in bit output, and persistent weak demand in consumer electronics are likely to gradually restore market balance. Consequently, the current supply tightness is expected to diminish in the latter half of 2027.
TrendForce notes that in 2026, NAND Flash suppliers will rely primarily on process node migrations to meet rising demand, as existing fab space remains constrained and manufacturers continue prioritizing DRAM capacity expansion. These capacity constraints are expected to persist into 2027.
Korean, U.S., and Japanese suppliers are therefore likely to continue upgrading existing production lines and selectively expanding output at current facilities to increase market supply. Meanwhile, Chinese suppliers are expected to significantly boost production capacity as new manufacturing equipment comes online, raising their share of global NAND Flash bit output to nearly 19%.
Shipments of Intel's and AMD's next-generation server platforms are expected to accelerate during the second half of 2026, driving full-year server shipments to grow by 17% YoY.
Looking ahead to 2027, the commercialization of Agentic AI applications is expected to sustain demand for general-purpose servers. At the same time, improvements in component availability—including a significant easing of server CPU supply constraints and more stable memory supply under long-term supply agreements (LTAs)—are expected to remove key bottlenecks to system production. Together, these factors are projected to further accelerate server shipment growth in 2027.
In contrast, demand from the smartphone and notebook PC markets continues to weaken. TrendForce forecasts global smartphone production to decline 15–20% YoY in 2026. Although AI-enabled premium smartphones are expected to support demand in the high-end segment, limited recovery in end-market demand and increasing consumer price sensitivity will likely result in another year of declining smartphone production in 2027, albeit at a more moderate pace.
The notebook market is also expected to remain under pressure. Following an estimated shipment decline of around 10% in 2026, notebook shipments are projected to contract slightly again in 2027 due to persistently high component costs, including memory and CPUs.
TrendForce points out that although servers now account for more than 40% of total NAND Flash bit demand, smartphones and notebooks together still represent nearly 40% of overall demand, meaning the consumer market continues to play a decisive role in determining overall market conditions.
Meanwhile, NAND Flash manufacturers continue to maintain relatively lean inventory levels. While module makers have accumulated higher inventories due to weak consumer demand, inventory held by other customer groups remains largely under control. Based on these supply and demand dynamics, TrendForce estimates that the NAND Flash market will record a 4–5% supply deficit in 2026, resulting in continued shortages. However, the supply-demand balance is expected to turn positive in the second half of 2027, allowing supply constraints to gradually ease.
More Memory Industry Analysis
Leading chipmakers and CSPs have pursued both hardware and software innovations to overcome memory bottlenecks as surging KV Cache demand in the first half of 2026 collided with constrained memory supply. Penguin Solutions, Marvell, and Meta have introduced KV Cache servers and CXL switches to expand the memory hierarchy and increase effective memory capacity. Meanwhile, NVIDIA and Google have developed technologies such as KVTC and TurboQuant to compress KV Cache and reduce memory consumption.
TrendForce provides an in-depth analysis of these architectural innovations in its report, " Overcoming the Memory Bottleneck: CXL Expansion and KV Cache Compression Innovations." For more comprehensive market data and technical insights, please refer to the full report at the link below: https://www.trendforce.com/research/download/RP260715HU